Wake Up And Smell The Coffee: Proportionality Revisited, France And The New Tale Of David And Goliath

August 9, 2006

Hizbollah are ‘winning,’ we are told.

“All Hizbollah has to do is still be standing at the end and they can claim a win,” say others.

What absolutely stupid and mindless drivel.

If the Israelis wanted to eliminate Hizbollah, they only need to look to the French: When they bombed Serbia, over 10,000 civilians in Belgrade were killed- and that was in Belgrade only. It is estimated that ‘enlightened’ French military tactics resulted in the deaths of up to 30,000 civilians.

To equal that ‘enlightened’ French expression of military might, Israel need not concern itself until there are an additional 29,000 plus civilian deaths in Lebanon.

Here is some more reality. In discussing proportionality, consider this: The total Jewish population of Israel is about 5.5 million, out of total of 6.5 million. The total number of Jews in the world outside of Israel is about 8.5 million at most. Worldwide, the total Jewish population is no more than 14 million.

The population of the Arab world is approximately 323 million people, the vast majority of which believe their highest calling is to kill Jews. This is taught in schools, reinforced in the media and preached incessantly, from the pulpit, by religious ‘leaders.’

If the entire Islamic world is factored into the equation, the population that revels in the thought of the destruction of Israel and the slaughter of Jews, swells. Total Muslim population estimates range from 700 million to 1.8 billion.

How’s that for ‘proportionality’?

There are up to 1.8 billion people that who believe killing Jews is a ticket into Paradise. OK, let’s halve that number. Not all Muslims buy into the racist, bigoted and hate filled ideologies. That leaves only 900 million people that want to slaughter Jews. Ok, let’s be serious- say only a third of them are really committed to killing Jews.

That leaves 300 million Muslims ready to respond to the call of ITBACH AL YAHUD!- SLAUGHTER THE JEWS!

Absurd? Maybe. Tell you what- how about we only factor in the Arab population?

Let’s say only 25% of the Arab population are serious. Notwithstanding the Arab League and CNN telling us the Arab world is united in their hatred of Israel, let’s say that only 25% of Arabs want to kill Jews. That leaves over 80 million Arabs that would kill a Jew at the drop of a hat so that they might get into Paradise.

That means less than 1 in 16 Arabs will have their dreams fulfilled. (Of course, if you factor in the Iranians, and the other billion Muslims, there are even fewer Jews to go around. One has to wonder if Muslim brother will fight Muslim brother for the privilege of killing Jews and thus assuring their place in Paradise).
Where were the ‘proportionality’ concerns prior to the current crisis? Why are tens, if not hundred of millions of people who would be delighted to ‘finish what Hitler started,’ not a concern?

There is a real David and Goliath story going on here. Only an evil bastard would deliberately misrepresent who is who.

Only an idiot cannot tell them apart.

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2 Responses to “Wake Up And Smell The Coffee: Proportionality Revisited, France And The New Tale Of David And Goliath”

  1. Ken Says:

    One has to wonder if Muslim brother will fight Muslim brother for the privilege of killing Jews and thus assuring their place in Paradise.

    What do predators eat after they’ve killed off all the prey?

  2. I sympathize with your position but I think it may contain a false premise. Was the French killing 30,000 civilians actually instrumental to achieving their objective? Or was it just another example of blatant French disregard and utter military incompetence? [Full disclosure: beyond their epicurean achievements, I do not like the French and tend to be unwilling to say anything in the slightest bit complimentary about them, but I think the point still stands.] One might posit the same premise and ask the same question in regards to Russian actions in Grozny, where the situation is a bit clearer.

    I certainly agree that Israel — or we — need not be concerned with proportionality in a war of national existence. But I do think we need to be concerned with what works and what does not. PJ O’Rouke once said, in what is both the most pithy and most accurate statement of Clinton’s foreign policy I ever read, that “He showed up 6 months late and bombed the country next door.” We need to do better than that.

    In that regard, I would point out that your speculations on proportion of Muslim’s who are actively willing to kill Jews indeed hold an important key to strategy. If the number is about a quarter, that is one type of problem and requires one type of strategy. If the number is I in 100 or 1 in 1,000 that is another very different problem and requires another type of strategy. And, just to be clear: in your examples, are we talking the whole Muslim population here, or just Muslim males between the ages of 15 and 30? Do we include Muslim countries, like Indonesian where Islamic belief has a large alloy of native animist and Buddhist belief that makes Islamic radicalism is much less prevalent? Start putting all these factors in your calculus and you start to lay the ground work for a serious discussion about the scope of the problem and what to do about it.

    Of course you also have to consider that Muslim public expression and private opinion are related in ways that are not consistent and that most of us do not understand, and without that detailed understanding, accounting for the differences between Iranians, Iraqis, Afghans, Turks, Tajiks, Somalis, Balinese, etc, etc & etc, taking the things that are readily observable — what is said, what is taught, and so on — is almost guaranteed to lead to erroneous conclusions and bad predictions. So this is not an easy problem.

    The good news is that this problem has already been worked, it continues the be worked and the threats have been identified, the strategy has been formulated and is in place, it has been implemented and it is working. Not of course on the time scale of the news cycle or blog cycle, but it is working. To try to figure out what is actually going on based on what we in the public hear daily is basically to react to noise. That never got anyone anything but maybe an ulcer.

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