Wake up West, negotiating with Iran is futile

National Post:

The futility of talks aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb was encapsulated into a single sentence by the Israeli vice-prime minister Friday: “We believe the Iranians will never abandon their dream to become a nuclear power,” Silvan Shalom said after meeting in New York with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

If you think he’s got a special “incentive” to say that, consider that a western diplomat close to the talks with Iran was, also Friday, categorical in declaring the West knows Iran’s nuclear program has military aims.

This diplomat scoffed at the Iranian claim its nuclear program’s central goal is to produce electricity.

“They don’t even have a [working] reactor,” he said.

And yet U.S. President Barack Obama insists that re-engagement with Iran is possible – and that the power of the “yes, we can” philosophy will convince the mullahs in Tehran to bend to the will of the “international community.”

The only “bending” being done Friday was by the Obama administration. Just hours after Iran sidestepped the day’s “deadline” to accept a deal its own negotiators had signed off on this past Wednesday, Washington agreed to give the Islamic republic more time to mull it over.

The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran indicted it needs until the middle of next give a final response.

Except that in Iran, state run television was already quoting a senior Iranian negotiator as saying the Islamic republic is floating a revised deal.

Apparently, whereas Wednesday’s deal says Iran’s stock of nuclear fuel should be reduced, Iran’s “tweaked” version proposes Iran be allowed to buy more uranium.

Washington tried to sound tough by saying that its patience with Iran isn’t limitless. Iran really must give an answer on the deal, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said. But which deal?

This isn’t a carrot-and-stick approach. More like carrot-and-steak.

The U.S. military is doing its bit, this week conducting drills with Israeli forces aimed at enhancing missile defence.

But with the Commander-in-Chief having put virtually every issue in Washington on hold until he can get health care through, are the Iranians getting the upper hand?

Don’t count on toughness from the IAEA, whose chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, has indicated many times he’ll do just about anything to avoid provoking an international crisis with Iran.

Fears over Iran’s nuclear program are “exaggerated,” he’s said. It took the discovery of a secret nuclear enrichment plant in the mountains near Qom to prompt him to say Iran had “been on the wrong side of the law.”

But last Wednesday he was back to baffling people with talk about the “complex process,” coupled with the “technical aspect,” as well as the “question of confidence building guarantees.”

As for the “international community,” its strongest branch, the UN Security Council, has already seen Iran thumb its nose at three sets of sanctions aimed at “forcing” the Islamic republic to roll back its nuclear ambitions.

Far from downsizing its program, Iran has responded with boast after boast about its rising mastery of the uranium enrichment process.

History shows that when Britain and France made their respective bids to join the nuclear club, they each began with enrichment activities.

Indeed France, excoriated by the Bush administration for opposing the war in Iraq, is now sounding far more hawkish than the U.S. over Iran. In Lebanon, Bernard Kouchner, French foreign minister, warned the “negative indications” emerging from the talks with Iran augured badly for seeking additional political contacts.

Iran, of course, is not permitted to develop a nuclear weapon because it is part of the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. That’s the legal basis for trying to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

The real urgency comes from the fact that we want to keep nuclear bombs out of the hands of a dictatorial theocracy that backs terrorist groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian weapons are also increasingly “falling” into the hands of insurgents in Afghanistan.

The deal finalized Wednesday would see the bulk of Iran’s nuclear fuel stockpile shipped to Russia, and then France, for processing.

Those countries would convert it into a form that, when returned to Iran, can be used only in a Tehran facility that makes medical isotopes for cancer and other treatments.

Iran’s counter deal would see it buy fuel from overseas suppliers for the facility to replace diminishing stocks. Iran  presumably hopes that operating the facility is enough to demonstrate the “peaceful” nature of its nuclear program.

As things stand, Israel believes the West risks being duped by Iran.

“We are very concerned that Iran will use the goodwill of the international community to continue to develop their real intentions,” Shalom said.

The diplomat close to the talks suggested that the West could benefit from divisions within the Iranian regime, which has been weakened by opposition demonstrations.

“There is obviously tension within the Iranian leadership over the negotiations on the nuclear file,” he said.

It’s pretty bad when our best hope seems to rest on Iran falling apart.

With Israel widely believed to have been close to ordering a military strike on Iran before the current Obama-inspired talks began, something more effective than a “this-time-we-mean-it ….” policy needs to emerge. Just pass health care already.